A pledge by the leader of Reform UK to contest every seat in England could spell difficulty for the Conservatives in Northumberland.

The party currently hold three of the county’s four constituencies following the 2019 election.

However, according to the election model created by Britain Elects and the New Statesman magazine, the Tories could lose all of them if an election were held according to current polling figures.

It follows bold claims by Richard Tice, the Brexit-backing leader of Reform UK – the party that evolved from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

In 2019, the Brexit Party agreed to step aside in a number of key Labour-Tory battlegrounds, helping the Conservatives towards their landslide victory.

However, speaking at a press conference this week Mr Tice warned there would be no such deals this time round.

He said: “The special pleading has already started – ‘Please don’t stand here, please don’t stand there, I’m one of the nice guys who believe in everything that you believe in’.

“You’ve all broken Britain, you’re all responsible, so there’s no special deals. We stand in every single seat in England, Scotland, and Wales.”

Following the speech, the odds of a Labour majority were slashed from 1/5 to 2/9, according to AltIndex. The impact has the potential to be dramatic in Northumberland.

As it stands, Reform has two prospective parliamentary candidates put forward for the Northumberland constituencies. Calum MacGregor looks set to contest the new Cramlington and Killingworth constituency, while Mark Peart will fight for the Blyth and Ashington seat.

Mr Peart stood in the Blyth Valley constituency for the Brexit Party in 2019, taking 8.3 per cent of the vote. This equated to 3,394 votes – with Conservative Ian Levy prevailing over Labour’s Susan Dungworth by 712 votes.

The party’s website claims that a PPC will be announced for the remaining constituencies in Northumberland in future.

It should be noted that the electoral map is currently using the constituencies as they were prior to the 2023 Boundary Commission review, which saw significant changes in Northumberland.

The Blyth Valley seat will be divided into a new Cramlington and Killingworth Seaton and a new Blyth and Ashington constituency, incorporating the majority of the Wansbeck constituency.

Elsewhere, Morpeth would move from the current Wansbeck seat to the new North Northumberland constituency, along with the former Berwick constituency.

The Hexham constituency is set to expand, gaining the villages of Callerton and Throckley as well as Newcastle International Airport. 

Also included will be the Northumberland ward of Longhorsley along with parts of Ponteland North.

In the Hexham constituency, current polling puts Labour on 42 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing on 32.9 per cent. Reform meanwhile are polling at nine per cent.

The current model also predicts a very narrow win for Labour in Berwick, receiving 33.8 per cent of the vote compared to the Conservatives on 31.5 per cent. Reform is predicted to receive 10.7 per cent.

Labour are predicted to win far more comfortably in Blyth Valley, which turned Conservative in 2019 for the first time in its history. Labour are currently predicted to win 54.2 per cent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives on 23.4 per cent.

Those behind the election model say it is “one of the more advanced daily predictors of a general election result”. However, it is also acknowledged that it is just a model and, “like every model, it has its limitations and assumptions”.