IT'S been a safe Conservative seat for almost 100 years – but there is now growing optimism in the Labour Party that the Tory stronghold of Hexham in Northumberland could turn red next month.

The visit of Labour’s battle bus last week, along with deputy leader Angela Rayner, was a clear statement that the constituency is now a firm target. And while in previous years farmers’ fields were chock full of blue billboards urging the public to vote Tory, this year there are far fewer.

On the other hand, there is a smattering of Labour signs staked outside homes across the constituency, showing support for the party’s Joe Morris. Mr Morris, who was selected as Labour’s candidate in October, was born in the constituency and attended Queen Elizabeth High School in Hexham.

Then there is poor national performance of the Conservatives –  current polls put them at 22 per cent, compared to the Labour Party on 44 per cent.

READ MORE: Social Democratic Party leader hopes for upset of Hexham constituency

There are also boundary changes to consider. The latest review by the Boundary Commission brings the Callerton and Throckley ward of Newcastle Upon Tyne into the constituency, and the suggestion is this will benefit Labour. 

That ward is currently represented by three Labour councillors on Newcastle City Council. At last month’s election, Labour’s Linda Wright won 50.8 per cent of votes cast, compared to 25.6 per cent received by Tory candidate Alexis Fernandes.

All of this seems to suggest that the tide could be turning. The latest polls support that argument too – Labour is currently polling at 46 per cent, with the Tories languishing behind in second place on 29.2 per cent

But a Labour win is by no means a certainty, and there is plenty for incumbent MP Guy Opperman to be optimistic about.

Labour has never won the seat in its 139-year history going back to 1885. The seat changed hands regularly between the Liberals and the Conservatives between 1885 and 1923, but since the 1924 election it has been a solid Conservative seat – baring a period from 1943 to 1951, when ex-Tory MP Douglas Clifton-Brown served as the Speaker of the House of Commons.

Even in 1997, during Labour’s landslide win under Tony Blair, Conservative MP Peter Atkinson managed to cling on with a severely reduced majority of just 222, down from 13,500.

Mr Opperman’s majority 2019 was less than that – but still a sizeable 10,549 that will be tough to overturn. The former Pensions Minister will also be buoyed by the fact he won’t be facing a Reform UK candidate when the country goes to the polls.

Mr Opperman, who has been the MP for Hexham since 2010, will hope to benefit from the incumbency factor, and has pointed to his record of delivery in the constituency.

The other candidates for the seat are William Clouston of the SDP, Nick Cott of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Morphet of the Green Party and Independent candidate Chris Whaley.